Chapter
4: Alternatives—What
can I do?
Creative
Problem Structuring –Alternatives
Alternative: is a possible course of action, which often
can be identified by the use of verbs
List
examples of an alternative:
Often
times we are controlled by our perspectives.
That is to say we often ignore possible alternatives, or don’t even
think about them because we are so focused on the problem.
Nine
dot problem: draw four contiguous
straight lines (without lifting your pencil) so that they go through the nine
dots. [it is
possible to do it with three]
Our
mind starts out with the assumption that you must stay within the box to draw
the lines. This puzzle can’t be solved
without thinking outside the box.
Analysis
of Values, Alternatives, Causes, and Resources; and Alternative Checklists
We
examined our values, what is important to us.
Now it is important to use those values to suggest alternatives.
Analysis
of Values, uses a value focused search to work
backward from our goal. This is a
Heuristic.
Example,
how many people have looked up the answer of a math problem so you can work
backwards to figure out how to get there?
While this is problem solving this is an example of how it can be used
in decision making.
Using
the goal and working backwards is more efficient and often more effective way
of processing information about decisions.
1.
It
is easier to generate alternatives if you are trying to satisfy one value at a
time….
a.
Produce
more alternatives
b.
Produce
higher quality alternatives
c.
The
more specific the value the easier time you have generating an alternative
associated with it.
d.
Example…if
one of your friends is vegetarian, and you are going out to dinner you
automatically make a list of places where the vegetarian friend can find a
selection of food they can eat.
Directions.
1.
Rank-order
your values from most important to least important.
2.
Take
your most important value, and list all possible alternatives that satisfy your
value
3.
Do
this for each value of your well structured value set.
Analysis
of Alternatives
4.
Compare
the alternatives starting with the most important value…does one satisfy all
the values you have. This is called
creating dominance for an alternative….
5.
While
combining them you will come up with combinations that don’t make sense… but you may want to
force fit these ideas.
Analysis
of Causes
Good
alternatives cause good outcomes.
1.
Think
backward from outcomes to causes, can gives use enormous incite to what our
problem constitutes.
2.
Example—given
diagnosis gives to mind alternatives for treatments.
3.
Beware
of a faulty causal analysis—which can be driven by biases based in defensive
avoidance or other things. Genuine
causes lead to good alternatives.
4.
Criminal
justice system, Jail size, and court back up….(as the
true cause—book discusses it, worked on it).
5.
Fundamental
Attribution Error can lead to faulty causes of behavior in determining causes
behind people’s actions—say in decisions involving other people.
6.
Temporal
Contiguity leads us to believe that changes that occur close to the event are
causes of the event…. Than some other reason.
(crime rate and certain politicians….economic
changes…etc. sept 11….but what else could have been the cause?)
7.
Key
to sound causal analysis is the principle of controlled comparison.
To
justify the claim that A causes B, you must find that B changes when A is
changed and nothing else is changed.
There
could BE OTHER causes to look for.
Sometimes
you may need to examine situations where somewhere where B doesn’t occur. For example, The Space
Shuttle. (Only looking at situations where the problem occurred not where the problem didn’t occur.
Hard
drugs and marijuana use is an example of faulty causal judgment.
Correlation and Ice Cream?
Look
for different causes…. Child in the
store screams, mom buys him a candy bar….
Analysis
of resources…
1.
You
have to make due with limited resources (like money in buying a car)
2.
Can
be an effective way of generating alternatives
3.
Story
of grandmother and resources…but using what you have.
4.
Vocational
planning resources and abilities should be taken into account…what’s available
given one’s location and income.
SWOT
analysis checklist
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
This
calls attention to both positive and negative resources within oneself, and
outside of ones self.
Alternative
Checklists: You can use checklists as
well, which have been gone over in previous chapters, and will be gone over
again in the chapter on Uncertainty.
Classification,
Analysis into Sub-Problems
What
do you do if you have too many alternatives?
Evaluate
broad classes of alternatives
Example,
What type of Car? What area you want to
explore in grad school, before you look at schools? Others? You can reject an entire class, without
having to evaluate alternatives…
Analysis
your problem into sub-problems
This
makes your decision more manageable when there are a great number of
alternatives. Identify your sub-goals, they tend to be relatively independent of each other.
Buy
a Car…what are subgoals
1.
How
much money you want to spend?
2.
Whether
or not you want to finance?
3.
What
overall type of car you wish to buy
4.
Make
and model
Criteria
for a Well-Structured Set of Alternatives (Few Criteria)
1.
At
least two alternatives (preferably more) [I want to see at least 3]
2.
Alternatives
that are mutually exclusive: Should be
possible to go on one path and only one path—save for resource issues (which
will be discussed later)
3.
Alternatives
that differ substantially from one another (desired but not required)
Chapter
5: The Mighty Decision Table: How do I choose
The
Decision Latter—start from the bottom of it. Start with the most-simplest method and move
up only as necessary. (For this class I will ask you to work your way thought
several steps).
Start
with the important considerations, bringing in details only when and if needed.
1. Prioritized List: Rank order your alternatives
a. You can do this by either
Intuition or actual analysis
b. Analysis breaks the problem
into sub problems while intuition takes into account everything at once.
c. Analysis takes longer,
requires training…but one isn’t necessarily as good as another.
d. General rule…if decision is
important you should do both…. (put intuition away,
take a break, come back and do and analysis).
e. If they are not in
agreement, either one or both could be wrong…this means that there is an error.
f.
Intuition is important, do not confuse it with biased feelings
however (flat earth)
2. Reasons versus outcomes.
a. You can choose among a set
of alternatives for an alternative that has good consequences or good reasons
for being chosen….to justify it to other. (example voting)
Screening: *Will go back to this more in depth later…
Decision
Tables: The idea of a controlled
comparison
Allows
for attention to be drawn to cells that are overlooked
Acts
as a form of stimulus variation: seeking of dominance of an alternative
Fact
table: getting facts is crucial to
decision making….
You
must be willing to put your values on your alternatives to the test, or this
will end up being a self enhancing belief….